10 Megatrends

I suppose it is inevitable that in the research community we tend to focus our attention on the micro-politics of science and education funding policy that affect our immediate situation. Doing so however, can lead us to miss the 'megatrends' that might reshape or disrupt the research landscape and can prevent us from acting sufficiently radically or decisively. This is the profserious list of the top 10 megatrends with some brief indication of what we need to do in order to adapt.

Megatrend 1: The development of science and research in Asia (and to a certain extent in India and South America). All the statistics say the same thing, that the universities in Singapore, Korea and increasingly China are developing their research capability. These universities benefit from fast moving economies that are prioritising education and science, they operate in a different political environment that allows them to be more strategic. They are able to draw on a strong connection to a manufacturing and industrial production base and are benefiting from individuals returning with a strong background in overseas university systems. Cultural and systems barriers that have inhibited their development are being surmounted. India & South America have the potential for development though there are specific factors in each case that hold them back, we cannot however assume that this will continue to be the case. We face the end of a 'colonialist model' of research and higher education and must adapt to a new competitive landscape and build new partnerships founded upon mutual collaboration.

Megatrend 2: Changes in key innovation actors in the economy. Conventional models of how innovation happens are being disrupted by changes in global supply chains and new capabilities that allow small businesses to drive complex innovations. This coincides with the end of large industry research labs and a greater propensity for bigger organisations to secure innovation through acquisition rather than development. A set of intermediate organisations such as Fraunhofers and Catapults are playing a growing role in the process of 'translation'. Universities will be required to rethink the ways in which they secure impact and engage in knowledge transfer and will need to open up to new kinds of relationship.

Megatrend 3: Success of research ecosystems. Universities are no longer successful on their own. Their success depends on an ecosystem of small and large companies, public sector organisations, schools, charities, foundations, city and local government, and communities, that are in turn dependent upon the university for their success. This view suggests that universities that consider themselves in isolation, or that persistently take short-term actions independent or to the detriment of their ecosystem, will not be successful. A new view based on openness and strategic engagement with building ecosystem rather than solely institutional capability is required.

Megatrend 4: Political centrality in debates about innovation and growth. There has been a growing realisation amongst governments worldwide of the potential contribution of research, particularly in science and engineering, as an economic driver. This has led to investment and increases in public funding that must be accounted a 'good thing'. It comes however, with a rising political expectation that science and engineering will in actuality produce innovation and growth. In short, university research has moved from the periphery of the political debate to the centre. We are now playing a high stakes game and we must engage and, ultimately, we must deliver.

Megatrend 5: Changes in the ways in which research will be disseminated. The debate here has focussed on open access and the consequent changes in publishing business models. I have commented on this previously. I think however that the confluence of interactive and social media and open data is already reshaping scientific and technical communication. The familiar forms such as papers and journals are dissolving to be replaced by ... it is not exactly clear. New forms of research dissemination might also shore up peer review which is creaking under the pressure of accelerating pace, increasing volume and growing specialisation. The post-paper, post-journal era will have individual and institutional winners capable of exploiting new communication modalities and also-rans.

Megatrend 6: Growing advantages of scale. In this analysis I have concentrated on science and engineering research, where I feel more comfortable, and frankly, can speak with more authority. The humanities and social sciences however, are not immune to change. The cultural and social 'problematics' that we are confronted with are complex and large-scale: security, inter-cultural communication, the effects of emigration and exile, religion and rationality. The ability to tackle these issues signals perhaps the end, or at least the transformation, of the ‘lone scholar’ model. Scale and the organisational capacity to build and sustain large collaborative teams are increasingly required. In science and engineering large and ever more costly ‘research platforms’, comprising equipment and skilled staff, are necessary. Scale, financial among other things, and the capability to assemble and work within complex consortia of partners and competitors are key determinants of future success.

Megatrend 7: The transformation of the doctorate. The doctorate is, as it stands, one of the central props of research, and has served us well. It is however, a product of 19th century German universities and is increasingly less well suited to the contemporary environment. We have started exploring new models, the professional doctorate for example, but this is piecemeal and has often been done without wholehearted institutional commitment. It does however presage change. The doctorate will need to be transformed and reinvented, it neither wholly meets the needs of employers nor academia. Success will be to the brave and the swift.

Megatrend 8: From multi-disciplinarity to trans-disciplinarity. Predicting intellectual trends is a mug's game. I guess then, that I am a mug. I think that the need for different methods drawn from across a range of disciplines in order to address grand challenges is well established. Institutions that can do this are at a clear advantage. This is not new. What is new, is the need for disciplinary exchange that goes beyond sharing methods and looks at the blending of perspectives and critically, the spaces between disciplines. Different disciplines adopt very different epistemological stances and this can be a source of strength. Institutions where scholars are prepared not simply to cross boundaries but to transgress them are where the 'action' is.

Megatrend 9: The challenge of gender and age diversity. I include this megatrend not out of a misplaced need for political correctness but because of its disruptive potential. Aside from the social equity arguments and harnessing talent, addressing science and impact to users requires diversity. Gender and age discrimination have been baked into the research community, reinforced through rising casualisation of the workforce. They bedevil our processes, employment, ways of working and of speaking, and what we value. They operate in different ways in different cultural settings, but have too a universal component. Ultimately they act to undermine research and to limit our capacity. Only institutions with a genuine commitment to alter the fundamental structures that underpin research including the nature and course of academic careers will be able to meet the challenge.

Megatrend 10: Drive to research integrity. The forces operating to place research integrity at the centre of institutional agendas are many and complex. The rising tide of journal retractions and the high profile uncovering of scientific frauds are surface indicators. More fundamentally the awkward relationships between research funders with commercial or other interests are posing growing challenges in many areas of science, must publicly in energy and biomedicine. Increasing research specialisation means that independent expert scrutiny is diminished, growing publication volumes have damaged informal systems, large research teams impede oversight, a premium on novelty slows replication and high career stakes can stress personal judgement. The successful institutions will increasingly become those whose research can be most trusted which will be a product in part of reputation, which is fragile, and significantly the systems that are in place to reinforce research integrity.